If earlier analysts turned a blind eye to the fall in car sales, calling it small difficulties, now that car market Russia is rapidly collapsing, even the lazy realized.
According to them, the level of sales compared to March last year fell by half - if last year Russian companies 240 thousand cars were sold in a month, then this year it was possible to sell 139 850 cars.
Experts also note that the real numbers of car sales by Russian dealers can be even more deplorable, because the information provided by the AEB indicates the number of cars that were allegedly sold, and not registered.
Jörg Schreiber, Chairman of the Committee of Car Manufacturers of the Association of European Businesses, noted that the fall in the Russian car market was a predictable event, which was caused by the rapid rise in prices observed at Russian dealerships at the beginning of this year.
“The situation in Russia should stabilize, but we cannot say how long this process will take,” added Schreiber.
By the way, many European experts associate the departure of large international car dealers from the Russian car market with the imposition of economic sanctions against the Russian Federation, which led to a crisis, inflation and devaluation of the ruble.
As of March 2015, the leading positions in the Russian car market were taken by Lada, Hyundai, Renault, Toyota and Kia.
As you know, Chevrolet and Opel were forced to leave Russia after their sales fell to an unacceptable minimum. By the way, Chevrolet is leaving the Russian car market in part - the Americans are leaving the expensive elite models and the beloved Niva.
Experts believe that after them Ford may also "leave", sales of which decreased by 73%, despite the release of the new budget crossover Ecosport.
In their opinion, the same future can await SsangYong, Citroen, Suzuki and Peugeot, which lost up to 80% of their profits. And the level of sales Honda cars and even fell by 91%, which can be considered a catastrophic minimum.
The crisis also affected premium models such as Mercedes-Benz, BMW, Infiniti, Audi and Porsche. By the way, the carmaker Porsche does not experience any particular difficulties in the Russian car market and was even able to raise the sales level by 27%. According to the head of the automobile concern in Russia, Porsche could not break only the fact that the company had been preparing for a crisis in the Russian economy for a long time. Therefore, the main tendency of her work has become effective cooperation with dealers and a competent pricing policy, which allows her to be loyal to each potential client.
The drop in new car sales in Russia in 2016 was 11%. According to the calculations of the committee of automakers of the Association of European Businesses (AEB), 1.425 million cars were sold in the past year, which is 176 thousand less than in 2015.
The annual figure could improve slightly due to the rush pre-New Year demand in December. In the last month of the year, 145 thousand cars were sold on the Russian market - only 1% less than in December 2015. However, after a successful November, when the market gained profit for the first time in a long time, many market participants expected more impressive indicators.
“The almost achieved balance in December sales to December of the previous year brings a line under a similar balance in the fourth quarter (-0.9% versus the same period last year),” says Jörg, chairman of the AEB Automobile Manufacturers Committee. - It good result when you compare it to the double-digit decline in the first nine months of the year. The market as a whole still needs a positive reversal, but is obviously in the process of finally finding a bottom. ”
Almost all market leaders in terms of sales went into negative territory at the end of the year. So, for example, Lada ended the year with a result of 266.2 thousand cars sold - 1% less than in 2015.
Sagged by 10%, having sold 145.2 thousand cars in 12 months. Kia's result was 9% lower than in 2015 - 149.5 thousand cars sold. The brand showed a decline of 3% (117.2 thousand sold). Toyota went into minus by 4%, having sold 94.5 thousand cars, and Volkswagen worsened the result of 2015 by 5%, having sold 74.2 thousand cars.
There are not so many brands that were able to increase sales over the year: GAZ (55.8 thousand, + 9%), Skoda (55.3 thousand, + 1%), UAZ (48.8 thousand, + 1% ), (42.5 thousand, + 10%), Lexus (24.1 thousand, + 19%) and the Chinese brand Lifan (17.4 thousand, + 15%). Several other companies have positive dynamics as well, with annual sales in the hundreds of units.
Lada models were removed from the pedestal
Thus, for the first time in the history of the Russian car market, a foreign car topped the annual sales statistics by model.
The last few years have been dominated by Lada models Kalina and Priora, then - Grantra, which is now only on the second line, albeit with a slight lag behind the competitor - 87.7 thousand units. Third place in the list of the best selling models - Kia rio, which sold 87.6 thousand units.
Nevertheless, as the head assured "Gazeta.Ru", in 2017 the auto giant intends to keep its 20% market share.
There is hope for growth in 2017
The AEB hopes that in 2017 the market has the potential to end a four-year decline and return to moderate growth.
"Expected that overall size the market will be equal to 1.48 million vehicles, or, in other words, 4% more than in 2016 ",
- said the head of the committee.
As part of the annual press conference of the AEB committee, Schreiber also said that the main factors that allow making positive forecasts for 2017 are the rise in oil prices, GDP growth and, of course, state support for the market - the continuation of well-proven programs for utilization, preferential car loans and trade-in.
At the same time, according to Gazeta.Ru sources in a number of auto companies, positive dynamics in sales can really be seen only if the state continues to support the industry. But so far, there is no exact data on the tools that they plan to launch in.
“Last year, the Deputy Minister of Industry and Trade made a lot of promises to us, but a significant part of these promises was not fulfilled,” said one of the representatives of the auto companies. - Therefore, there are a lot of questions for him and the Ministry of Industry and Trade. Yes, we are told that the level of state support will remain the same. But so far these are only words, on the basis of which it is difficult to make plans for the future. In addition, we are convinced that preferential car loans have exhausted themselves. But this tool works and has shown itself well. Why come up with something new just for the sake of just coming up with something? "
Answering a question from a Gazeta.Ru correspondent about new instruments to stimulate demand that the government is developing, Schreiber noted that he had only heard the names of new programs and did not know the details.
“The first car” and “the car for the country” sound great. Let's hope that the new programs will become just as effective ”,
He added. At the same time, Schreiber once again complained that the agreement on industrial assembly, which provides certain benefits, expires for most automakers in 2019, and there is also no clarity with the proposed instead of this tool.
Experts generally agree with the AEB forecast. "The growth of the car market in 2017 may amount to 5-6% - a gradual recovery will begin," the analyst tells Gazeta.Ru. "After four years of falling demand, consumer sentiment should already begin to improve."
The general director of the Avtostat agency believes that the growth of the car market may turn out to be more significant. “It all depends on oil prices, this is a key factor. If it costs around 70 rubles. per barrel, then sales may grow by 20%, but if prices begin to fall, then the car market may well not show growth at all. But this is my personal forecast, and the agency has not yet formed a consolidated opinion. "
The TOP-10 of the most popular used cars in the capital of Russia according to the results of March 2018 was compiled.
According to the results of March of this year, the Moscow market of used cars showed a decline. In total, 24,090 vehicles were resold during the indicated period. According to Avtostat, this result is 8.3% less compared to the same month in 2017. The leader in terms of sales in the secondary car market again became Ford focus.
TOP-10 of the most popular used cars in Moscow at the end of March 2018 |
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| A place | Model | Sales in March 2018, units | Difference, % |
| 1 | Ford focus | 787 | — 14,5 |
| 2 | Hyundai solaris | 716 | — 4,0 |
| 3 | Kia rio | 523 | + 16,5 |
| 4 | Skoda Octavia | 516 | + 24,0 |
| 5 | Toyota Camry | 418 | + 7,0 |
| 6 | Volkswagen polo | 383 | + 15,0 |
| 7 | Opal astra | 343 | — 15,0 |
| 8 | Mercedes-Benz E-Class | 333 | — 11,0 |
| 9 | Bmw 5 series | 318 | — 4,5 |
| 10 | Volkswagen passat | 309 | — 19,0 |
Hyundai Solaris was on the first line of the ranking of the most popular cars in the secondary car market of the capital of the Russian Federation in January and February 2018. Now the Ford Focus has returned to the leader's place, despite the negative sales dynamics. The most significant drop out of the top ten was in the Volkswagen Passat, and the most noticeable increase was in the Skoda Octavia.
It is curious that the Ford Focus overtook Hyundai Solaris not only in March, but also in the first quarter, since the total number of resold Focuses in the first three months amounted to 2,023 units, while the same figure for Solaris was 1,958 units.
Earlier, the portal "Kolesa.ru" reported that in 2018 there were about 489,100 cars. This result is 6.7% more compared to March 2017. Among the leaders in the country are Lada 2114 (13 807 units), Ford Focus (12 167), Lada 2107 (11 630), Lada 2110 (10 523), Lada priora in the back of a sedan (10 373), Toyota corolla(9 507), Lada 4 × 4 (8 734), Hyundai Solaris (8 023), Lada 2112 (8 011) and Lada 2115 (7 758 cars).
At the end of 2017, we also published. The five leaders included Ford Focus, Toyota Corolla, Hyundai Solaris, Toyota Camry and Renault Logan.
MOSCOW, October 11 - RIA Novosti, Alexey Zakharov... In September, Russians bought new passenger cars and light commercial vehicles a little more willingly than a month earlier. Over the past month, shipments fell 11%, while in August the decline was 18%, the Association of European Businesses (AEB) automakers' committee said. The market is supported by rumors about the possible termination of state sales support programs. In just 9 months, the market surpassed the mark of 1 million new cars sold, with a fall of 14.4% over the same period in 2015. What will happen to the car market - in the material RIA Novosti.
AvtoVAZ, UAZ and GAZ increase their share
They are also like: the choice of a used foreign car for 100 thousand rublesHave 100 thousand rubles and want to buy a foreign car? It is possible! But the choice is not wide: these are mainly used cars around the age of 10 years. There are also more recent copies, but if you want a more serious brand, you will have to put up with age. Let's try to find the best option.Sales volumes of new Lada in September increased by 5%. Dealers of AvtoVAZ were able to sell almost 23 thousand vehicles. More than half of the deliveries fell on the Granta and Vesta models. Lada granta even managed to stay in the top three most popular models in September and for 9 months of 2016. The share of AvtoVAZ in the Russian market last month reached 18.2%, which is 2.8 percentage points higher than in September last year.
Some AvtoVAZ customers decided to take advantage of the opportunities government programs amid rumors about their completion at the end of the year, which spurred demand for new lada, said the vice-president of AvtoVAZ for external communications Raf Shakirov.
"Many buyers amid information about the possible cancellation of some programs state support the car market rushed to renew their car park - and they are right. I'm going to do it myself. Now I go to the service Lada xray, but I think I will buy the same personal or Lada Vesta... Let's see. Half of AvtoVAZ's sales are carried out with the participation of the state program to support the market, "Shakirov told RIA Novosti.
He also notes that the choice of Lada buyers was influenced by the auto show in Moscow, where the plant showed cars of the current and future model range.
For example, the most affordable Lada Granta is offered by a dealer at a price of 383.9 thousand rubles, but when the old car is returned to offset the cost of a new one (trade-in), the price for new model AvtoVAZ may decrease by 40 thousand rubles.
Sales of new UAZ SUVs also rose in September. Dealers issued 4.2 thousand cars, which is 2% more cars than a year earlier. The share of the Ulyanovsk Automobile Plant's products in the total sales of the Russian car market grew by 0.5 percentage points, to 3.4%. The main interest of buyers is UAZ Patriot- almost 1.4 thousand people became its new owners. The price of the model starts from 779 thousand rubles, but at trade-in car will cost 120 thousand rubles less.
GAZ Group also felt the positive influence of the state programs in September. Lung sales commercial vehicles grew by 2%, to 4.9 thousand units last month.
Foreign cars parted in different directions
Another model from Hyundai was able to move up a few steps. Crossover Creta from St. Petersburg, according to the company, was purchased in September by more than 5 thousand people. Volkswagen Polo, Lada Vesta and 4x4 are also in the top ten, Renault Duster, Toyota Camry and RAV4.
Jaguar had the best positive dynamics in September - sales jumped 2 times to 211 units thanks to the interest in the F-Pace crossover.
The leaders in terms of sales growth are also the brands Cadillac (+ 61%), Lexus (+ 51%), Subaru (+ 37%), Toyota (+ 18%) and Lifan (+ 12%). The deliveries of BMW (+ 6%), Skoda (+ 5%), smart (+ 5%), Volkswagen (+ 3%) and Mercedes-Benz (+ 1%) grew at a slightly slower pace.
Demand collapsed last month for new cars Suzuki (-63%), Citroen (-54%), Mitsubishi and Fiat (2 times), Datsun (-41%), Peugeot (-41%), Audi (-39% ).
Also, Ford supplies fell sharply (-27%), Land rover(-26%), Jeep (-26%), Chery (-24%), Mazda (-22%), Kia (-17%), Volvo (-17%) and Infiniti (-15%). Slow down a little less general sales Hyundai (-6%), Mini (-2%) and Nissan (-1%).
What's next?
They explain the slowdown in the rate of decline in comparison with last year by state programs to support the market, among which are programs for renewing the vehicle fleet, concessional leasing and concessional lending.
The leaders in terms of sales in 2016, as before, will be Lada, and for the title of the best foreign car brand in Russia, Kia and Hyundai will compete, followed by Renault and Toyota.
Automakers forecast short-term growth in demand for new cars amid rumors of the end of state support programs.
“The pace of sales in the remaining months of the year will depend on whether buyers believe in the continuation of government sales support programs. Those who assume that they are nearing completion can speed up the decision to buy. If the majority think so, then the demand for new cars grow up for a short time, "says Jörg Schreiber, head of Mazda Motor's Russian office, who also heads the AEB automakers' committee.
Rent: how they cheat in car dealershipsThe pursuit of a cheap car sometimes ends up at a dealership that uses fraudulent schemes. Unofficial dealers either do not immediately disclose all the terms of the deal, or simply substitute documents. A buyer who tried to save money may even lose all of his savings.Other experts are not so optimistic and draw attention to a number of other negative factors that put pressure on new car sales in Russia.
"An economy in recession, inflation, and a decrease in real incomes of the population lead to a significant drop in demand. Russians have switched from a consumption economy to a savings economy," the Autostat experts note.
PricewaterhouseCoopers, the Russian auto market could shrink 35% this year. "Secret" asked Sergei Udalov, executive director of the analytical agency "Autostat", to tell what to expect for the market and who will win in this situation.
What is happening in the car market
Almost everyone is in a difficult situation. Prices for cars have gone up dramatically: car owners who were ready to change their car have now decided to wait another year. Sales are going on, but at a very low level - they are not yet used to the new prices. The issuance of loans has dropped to a minimum.
For brands, the situation is different. It depends on the proportion Russian market in the global sales of the brand, from the composition of the owners and the format of presence in Russia. SsangYong is not leaving the market, but, most likely, it will switch from assembly to Russian plant for import. Despite the small volume of the market, it is still profitable for them to sell and assemble cars that have already been ordered. Perhaps later they will simply be imported, because with a small volume of assembly, it is completely inefficient to keep personnel, assemble cars and provide logistics.
The departure of General Motors is, in my opinion, not only an economic, but partly a political decision. The Russian market has always been considered significant for an American corporation. Even during the 2009 crisis, Chevrolet and Opel shared 12.3% of the market. And although in 2014, GM saw a serious drop in sales, this figure remained at the level of 8% - this is still a large volume. So if the political situation returns to normal, GM can return to Russia. Although, reputation losses cannot be avoided in this case.
** The car market in Russia may shrink by 35% ** this year ** by 50% ** in 2009 the market for new cars fell, and for secondary cars - by 20%
Ford is no better than GM in terms of sales dynamics, but nevertheless, they are not going to leave the market. In the past Ford crisis independently got out of financial problems, and GM took advantage of the state's help, which once again proves the political overtones in leaving the market.
For japanese honda and Suzuki in relation to global sales, the Russian market is very small. We are more likely to be niche brands. Depending on the readiness Japanese stamps to put up with losses in Russia, these brands will decide whether to stay or not. They have no production in Russia.
But most European brands are ready to maintain a dealer network in Russia. They raise prices very smoothly without trying to immediately compensate for the rise in currencies. The same BMWs say they are ready to keep today's prices for their cars, despite the fall in profits and margins. Prices for new cars will stabilize and will decline over time, but not much.
Photo: Mitya Aleshkovsky / TASS
How General Motors' departure will affect the market
Chevrolet and Opel have a total of 173 dealerships in Russia, and it is clear that this will hit them. Dealers will continue to service Chevrolet and Opel cars, but it will be more difficult for them to make money on the service - the bulk of the revenue comes from car sales. It is impossible to say unequivocally whether the price of service maintenance of these brands: dealers, on the contrary, will be more free to use spare parts, because GM's strict requirements are unlikely to apply after they leave Russia. Everything will depend on the economic situation of individual dealers, which can lower or increase the cost of service. Chevrolet cars and Opel.
The vacant niche will be gladly sorted out by other market players, but the departure of Opel and Chevrolet is unlikely to somehow affect prices. Opel and Chevrolet will be replaced primarily by Korean Hyundai brands and Kia. Partly, Volkswagen, Toyota, Škoda. Some consumers may switch to the Russian Lada as well.
Will Russians be left without foreign cars?
The situation cannot be called a full-fledged crisis. No mass exodus of foreign manufacturers is expected. Our market is large even with today's sales volumes, foreign companies are ready to make strategic decisions and maintain a presence on the market. Even if it will fall all this year and will not grow until 2018.
Many dealers and manufacturers were prepared for today's situation thanks to the experience of 2009, when the market fell unexpectedly. Large players will be stable without a serious credit burden. Regional dealers will have the hardest part, especially with brands that are experiencing a sharp drop in sales.
In recent years, most dealers have paid more attention to customer service, including after-sales. Also, many brands and dealers began to independently develop the sale of used cars. Three components of today automotive business- sales of new cars, service and sale of used cars. Those who have worked seriously in this direction now have a more stable situation. Such players will be able to develop further and, possibly, even buy someone.
Photo: Mikhail Japaridze / TASS
How the situation will affect the secondary market
The market for used cars is more stable: there is also a fall, but it is much less. For example, in 2009 the market for new cars fell by 50%, and the secondary market - only by 20%. Here the turnover continues: someone sells their used car and buys a new one at secondary market... In large cities, people are ready to sell and buy used cars through dealerships, because they are used to high-quality and professional service. You can already observe an increase in the volume of sales for some players more than 2 times. When dealers enter the secondary market, they are willing to lower the prices of cars, since the sale of used cars becomes, to some extent, an assembly line. It is clear that in January-February, the secondary market fell sharply, but now prices will be leveled. The market will determine for itself a more or less adequate price for used cars.
What are the prospects for the Russian car industry
Now dealers and manufacturers need to use everything possible methods interacting with government and their headquarters to create a situation in the market that is understandable for consumers. The general state of the economy, the political situation and possible programs of concessional lending will play a very important role here. The Ministry of Industry and Trade is ready to amend agreements on industrial assembly. From the same GM, it demanded the production of 360,000 cars by 2018, which is now unrealistic, so I think that adjustments to the agreements on industrial assembly signed earlier are still possible, primarily in terms of the timing and volume of localization.
According to my estimate, under a normal situation, the volume of the Russian market is 3 million passenger cars in year. The fall this year could be 30-50%.
Cover photo: Mikhail Japaridze / TASS
