Last week, a large international exhibition of commercial transport Comrtians 2017 was completed. She gathered in one place the most famous automakers and spare parts and components manufacturers.
Everyone was waiting for this exhibition in order to present russian market Its new in the field of commercial equipment (buses, trucks, vans, special transport, etc.), as well as show modern autocomponents and advancements.
Famous brands tried to post a maximum on the Moscow exposition and demonstrate a complete commercial line. I would like to start with domestic companies, namely from the GAZ Group, which submitted the long-awaited premieres, among them:, and other equipment (buses and trucks).
For the first time in ComTrans 2017, participation took, which showed the public Lada Largus. van, lada 4x4 pickup and Lada Granta. pickup.
Among foreign brands it is worth noting the Volkswagen brand stand. Here was a complete gamma commercial vehicles, including: Various versions of Caddy van, VIP-Shuttle Caravelle, TRANSPORTER and AMAROK models in different versions, new crafter, etc.
From Iveco, two representatives of light commercial vehicles were exhibited - tourist minibus and middle-class bus created on the basis of Daily van.
At its exhibition the lineup Commercial auto. Among them are as many as five versions of the TRANSIT van, as well as a new one. Plus, several were presented trucks and.
Next to Ford was another largest automaker - Mercedes-Benz. The company also brought to the exhibition of its representatives of commercial vehicles - these are Vito and Sprinter models in various modifications.
Recall that COMTRANS is a major international exhibition of commercial vehicles, passing in Moscow already on the 14th time. Its participants were about 200 manufacturing companies. vehicle and autocomponents; And the number of visitors included representatives of factories, car services, companies dealing with cargo and passenger transportation, and many others.
According to the estimates of the audit company in 2017, the situation in the sales market of new commercial vehicles should change for the better. PwC specialists are confident that sales trucks And buses in 2017 should grow, respectively, by 5 and 8%. On the hand, manufacturers and sellers of commercial vehicles play improved economic situation, postponed demand and government support for the industry.
According to market experts and analysts, 2016 showed general growth in the industry of commercial vehicles. The most significant increase in sales was observed among buses, by 15.4%, up to 10.4 thousand units. In the truck segment for 2016, the growth was 4%, increasing sales of up to 53 thousand units, the lightweight is much less, by 0.3% to 93 thousand cars per year. The success of the past year will be enshrined by the further restoration of sales. Sales of small commercial vehicles will increase by 5% to 97 thousand units. Trucks will also continue to grow on the same 5%, sales in the region of 56 thousand cars are expected in 2017. The sale of buses will increase by 8%, to 11.2 thousand pieces.
The factors that have influenced the strongest and which will affect the growth of sales in the opinion of PWC:
1. Oil prices
2. Rise's rise in price ruble
3. Grow consumer confidence
4. Deferred demand
5. Governmental support Commercial segment car market (park update program, preferential lending, industries, support for ambulance cars)
Experts remind that the commercial transport market has fallen from 2012, sooner or later, large autocompany were forced to update their fleet. It so happened that the 2016 and 2017 were the most favorable time for the update.
Among the restraining factors were named: increased tariffs for CASCO and OSAGO, the need to plant tachographs and systems, possible.
New commercial transport 2017 model year in Russia
Major cares about the comfort of clients whose work is related to transportation of low-tonnage cargo. Cars used as "work horses", wear out faster, which means it is the very case when it is very profitable to look at new models of commercial transport 2017 model year In Russia, and not buy a used van with a huge mileage, even if you have a little money. Usually, modern models There are partial or complete reconstruction of the chassis. You can judge the quality of the updated body design by quality photo.
What is included in the category - Commercial Transport
In this category, cars will be presented, ready for operation as a cargo-passenger transport. They are under the power of small volumes and weight of goods that can fit into the specified body dimensions. In Russia, such work is more often trusted by pickups, van, on-board trucks, transport with other body options (for example, isothermal van), minibuses, etc.
Commercial vehicles on the highest category implemented endurance, stability, maneuverability, security. In passenger salons - comfortable seats with modern safety belts. AT freight vans - A well-thought-out system for fastening of goods and exceptional comfort for the driver. These are cars that come in winter time In the half-turn, do not complain about the poor performance of motors, perfectly cope with russian roads And do not complain about the quality of our fuel.
New 2017 for merchants from Russia
Hyundai will appear their innovations in the segment of commercial vehicles next season (rear-wheel drive H350 will appear in the form of a minibus, onboard truck and all-metal van), gas, man tge, fiat, etc.
We are postponing only fresh and topical information on the news that has already been represented by the global community or preparing for the presentation. Configuration and prices as well specificationsPossible batch options - about everything you will learn from our news, reviews and test drives.
As you know, when choosing a new car, ordinary consumers are often guided running characteristics and the design of the car, as well as the prestige of the brand. However, the crisis forced many buyers to pay attention to such a significant factor as. But in the segment of commercial vehicles, this parameter was always key, and it was it often determines the success of the model on the market.
According to the Director of the Corporate Sales Department of Rolf Zara Gevorkyan, the content of commercial vehicles depends largely on the cost of maintenance, spare parts and supplies, And buyers of commercial vehicles are able to count money. Also taken into account the residual value and liquidity of the model on secondary market, In turn, are a reflection of its consumer qualities and reliability.
"For commercial vehicles, the reliability of the car plays an important role. For example, if passenger car, the owner can take advantage public transport. And in the event of a breakdown of a commercial car, every day of downtime threatens contracting contracts and loss of profit, "the head of the sales department of small cars" Panavo "is added by Andrei Mascores.
Analysts "Avtostat" found out what light commercial cars of foreign brands are most beneficial in operation. The study fell six most popular foreign LCV: Ford Transit., Mercedes-Benz Sprinter Classic, Fiat Ducato., Renault Master, PEUGEOT BOXER and Citroen Jumper.. For calculations, all-metal vans were selected in two embodiments - with an average wheel base and an average height of the roof (L2H2) and a long wheelbase and a high roof (L3H3). The study was conducted in the metropolitan regions - Moscow and Moscow region, as well as in St. Petersburg and the Leningrad region. As a result, the experts were calculated, which costs the content of cars for three years, subject to a run of 120 thousand km during this period. At the same time, retail prices of new cars and their residual value in the secondary market, as well as such expenditures such as fuel regulated by the official dealers, insurance and transport tax.
Transit transport
The least costly at the cost of ownership is recognized - Its content costs owners of 1.68-1.69 million rubles for three years or from 46.7 to 47.1 thousand rubles / month. If you translate this indicator in the cost of one mileage kilometer, then the transit it is 14 rubles. At the same time, at least, unlike most, Ford Transit foreign cars and produced in Russia, its price was not the most affordable (from 1.9 million rubles). The leadership of the model at the cumulative cost of ownership is provided primarily due to its favorable price When resale after the expiry of three years of operation and 120 thousand km of run (residual value). Yes, and transit maintenance from official dealers is cheaper than other competitors-foreign cars (about 100 thousand rubles. For 3 years). According to the specialists of Autocentre Atlant-M, the official Ford dealer in Smolensk, the cost of consumables and spare parts on the transit average is 1.2-1.5 times lower than the remaining cars represented. There is a considerable savings to the owners of the "American" and its fuel efficiency.
In second place at the aggregate cost of ownership among foreign LCV, Mercedes-Benz Sprinter Classic goes. The cost of its maintenance in three years amounted to 1.76 million rubles, the monthly budget - 49.1 thousand rubles. Each kilometer of the flea of \u200b\u200bthe sprinter costs its owner at 15 rubles. It is noteworthy that this chailder van premium brand It turned out to be the most affordable compared to competitors (from 1.6 million rubles). About low cost Largely provides local production of the model, which also has been equipped with last year. In addition, after three years of operation, Sprinter Classic loses less than the other participants in the ranking.
According to Andrei Masters, this model is in demand among buyers thanks to reliability and confidence in the brand of the manufacturer, and depending on the state and run for three years of operation lose no more than 40% in the price. At the same time, given the prevalence of Sprinter Classic in our country, there are no problems with searching for the necessary spare parts.
Meanwhile, this van significantly loses to competitors at the cost of service, which is more than twice as higher than that of the same transit - 236 thousand rubles. "Despite the fact that the car is produced in Russia, almost all spare parts are purchased in Europe. Them high quality In aggregate with the cost of Normochas and is maintenance costs. However, the cost of ownership can be reduced by a third if you purchase a service certificate on maintenance For a period of 3 years, "says Andrei Master.
Economy in french
The third result in the rating of foreign LCV at the cumulative cost of ownership showed a van (from 1.85 million rubles). The three years of its operation will require the amount from 1.8 to 1.9 million rubles, depending on the version of the execution, in terms of monthly spending it will be 50 thousand and 53 thousand rubles. respectively. And one kilometer runs the owner of the jumper at 15 and 15.9 rubles. Although this model, in contrast to the two rating leaders, is not produced in Russia, its high positions - in many ways the merit of the affordable service from official dealers (only 109 thousand rubles for three years) and the low cost of insurance. As explained by the Specialists of Auto Center Atlant-M, the cost of CASCO insurers shape independently based on the statistics of damage and car grows last year. Therefore, thanks to the smallest prevalence of Citroen Jumper and negative statistics, it is going much less on it.
"The cost of servicing Ford Transit and Citroen Jumper is significantly lower than that of Mercedes-Benz Sprinter Classic, primarily due to the fact that the regulated interservice mileage of the first two models was recorded at 20 thousand km, while Mercedes has 15 thousand km. . Thus, when driving a car in 120 thousand km, the owner will need to visit the dealership of two times more than competitors. In addition, it is necessary to take into account individual plans for regulatory work included in scheduled maintenance, as well as job prices and spare parts. Despite the fact that Transit and Jumper more economical Sprinter Classic, due to the high residual value and popularity in the Mercedes-Benz secondary market, was the leader, "comments the head of the corporate sales of the Avtomir GK Oleg Tkachenko.
It is curious that Citroen Jumper was able to bypass the cost of possession of his twin brothers Peugeot Boxer (from 1.86 million rubles) and Fiat Ducato (from 1.85 million rubles). And the latter is inferior to another ranking participant - (from 1.83 million rubles). The content of these vans will cost their owners from 1.8 to almost 2 million rubles in three years or from 50.4 thousand to 54.6 thousand rubles. per month. The relatively high cost of ownership of Fiat Ducato, Renault Master and Peugeot Boxer is due to a somewhat greater cost of spare parts and consumables for these cars, the specialists of the Autocentre Atlant-M are considered. In addition, due to the smaller popularity, their residual value in the secondary market is significantly lower, since most buyers still have distrust of French brands, Oleg Tkachenko adds.
The economic situation in Russia and in the world is straightened, and the market in this plan is a good indicator. However, about the mass return of buyers in dealerships to speak even early. Analysis of the car market has demonstrated that out of five sold cars today is only one new.
Analysis of the dynamics of the used car market in 2017
The data published by the Avtostat Analytical Agency indicate the following: In July 2017, sales of used cars in Russia amounted to 453.9 thousand units, which is 0.9% less than in the previous year. Although, strictly speaking, the sample data of one month is poorly connected with the annual trend. Nevertheless, as can be seen from Tables 1 and 2, in general, the secondary car market begins to respond positively (+0.8%) on the gradual improvement in the economic situation.
The leader of the secondary car market is invariably russian Mark. LADA whose share is 27% of the total volume (121.7 thousand copies), while 2.9% less than a year ago.
The leader is among foreign cars It also stably holds Toyota (51.1 thousand copies and minus 3.0%). Another Japanese brand is also presented in the top three - Nissan - with an indicator of 24.7 thousand cars (+0.5%).
As evidenced in the top 10 automotive market, four brands were noticeably slowed down: Lada, Toyota, Ford, Mitsubishi. The remaining six grades have a plus, and four brands have a very decent increase (Kia, Hyundai, Renault, Volkswagen).
Among the models, as in the previous period, the lada 2114 hatchback leads, despite the fact that its sales in the secondary market fell (806 186, -1.1%). Second place in the model ranking occupied sedan Lada. 2107 (80 228, -5.4%). In the third position, the model was entrenched Ford Focus (73 270, +2.2%), which turned out to be the best among second-hand foreign cars.
Among the growth leaders in the car market also LADA 2170 (+4.5%) and Hyundai Solaris. (+28.7%). Extremely high sales growth rates models Hyundai. Solaris is explained by its growing popularity. For several years, it is also one of the leaders of the primary market.
We highlight how the statistically most representative, total sales passenger cars With mileage for seven months of 2017 (2 946 472 pcs., +0.8%).
Table 1. Top 10 passenger car market with mileage in July by brands (pcs.):
|
mark. |
july'17 |
july'16 |
7 months .'17 |
7 months .'16 |
|||
|
In total in Russia |
2 946 472 |
2 922 914 |
table 2. Top 10 passenger car market with mileage in July on models (pcs.):
|
model |
july'17 |
july'16 |
7 months .'17 |
7 months .'16 |
|||
|
In total in Russia |
2 946 472 |
2 922 914 |
Analysis of the car market in Russia in 2017
Comparative dynamics of sales of new cars in 2014-2017. Presented by figure 1..
We will note the acceleration of new cars by month of 2017: in March, the growth amounted to +9.4%, in April +6.9%, in May +14.7%, in June +15%. According to the European Business Association (AEB), 141 thousand passenger cars and light commercial vehicles sold in Russia in June 2017. Not only the results of June 2016 were exceeded (123 thousand cars), but also data of two-year limitations (140 thousand cars).
When analyzing the market, the total total of the first half of the year - 718.5 thousand new cars, which is 6.9% more than in 2016. The real dynamics is ahead of the modest forecast of AEB, which at the beginning of the year evaluated the growth of the market by 4-5%. There is reason to hope that the remaining months of 2017 the situation will not worsen.
Picture 1. Sales of new cars in Russia in 2014-2017
AT table 3. Comparative sales statistics individual marks Lightweight and light commercial vehicles in the first half of 2016 and in the first half of 2017.
Of the fifty acting brands that are part of the statistics of AEB, in the first half of the year almost half of the manufacturers fixed sales growth. In the top ten, there is a positive dynamics in eight brands, and Lada, Kia, Hyundai, Renault and Volkswagen have demonstrated two-digit dynamics indicators, from +10 to +22%. According to the market analysis, among largest suppliers could not get out in plus only Japanese toyota brands And Nissan, although their lag from last year's results weakens.
The strengthening of the ruble had a negative impact on: Mercedes, Lexus, Audi, Land Rover. And even Porsche in the current year lost a significant part of the buyers, although BMW, Volvo and Infiniti due to the update of the models managed to increase demand.
The most sought-after model is Kia Rio.. Over the first half of 2017, 46 thousand cars were sold against 39.5 thousand in the previous year. The pace of sales of Lada Grant is gaining: in June, 8.6 thousand cars were implemented instead of 7.2 thousand in the same month of 2016, and the result of the half year is 42 thousand cars. Bronze medalist - Lada Vesta (35 thousand cars). Among crossovers in leaders Hyundai Creta. (24 thousand crossovers) having the fifth place of absolute rating.
Table 3. In Russia in January - June 2017 (in comparison with the same period of 2016):
|
Mark. | 6 months of 2017, pcs. |
6 months of 2016, pcs. |
Dynamics |
|
no data |
no data |
||
|
* Sales began in March 2016 |
Analysis of the truck market in 2017
Figure 2. Sales of new trucks "Big Seven".
On the figure 2. The history of sales change 2016/2015 "Big Seven" is presented. Tables 4-7 allow you to analyze the car market in 2016 in comparison with the 2015 data.
As follows Tables 4., sales of commercial vehicles after a long fall come to life. Rose in 2016 by 4.2%, and some brands succeeded (good growth was shown KAMAZ, MAN, Volvo, Daf, Iveco), others markedly lost in growth. An explicit trend was manifested - reducing sales of Asian trucks. European seven leaders invariably heads Scania. Next follow MAN and Mercedes. If we talk about the market for the tractor in general, here in the leaders a new KAMAZ-5490 with a cab of Mercedes, who managed to overtake MAN TGS.
According to the market analysis, modest sales indicators from the "cargo" brand Renault Trucks, which belongs to the Volvo concern, however, there was hope for correcting the situation, since the management of the concern is undertaken extraordinary measures to revive the brand in Russia.
In the market of light commercial vehicles (see Table 6), the situation as a whole has been practically stabilized. At the same time, there is a sharp separation of the speaker. The Gazelle NEXT is leading with a huge margin (an increase of 40.4%), sales of Mercedes Sprinter Classic wagons decreased by 27%. For about the same as the sale of the Ford Transit model has grown.
The buses market (Tables 8, 9) there have been a significant increase in sales (by 15%), due to large orders for Liaz and MAZ buses. At the same time, the shortened LIAZ-4292 Kursor, barely appeared on the market, captured the fourth place in the models ranking.
Table 4. Truck sales (full of over 3.5 tons), pcs:
|
Mark. |
2016 |
2015 |
Dynamics,% |
Table 5. Sales of new trucks on models, pcs.
|
brand, model |
2016 |
2015 |
Dynamics,% |
|
Mercedes Actros. |
|||
|
Mitsubishi Canter. |
|||
Table 6.Sales of new light commercial vehicles (full weight up to 3.5 tons), pcs.
|
Mark. |
2016 |
2015 |
Dynamics,% |
Table 7.Top 10 models of light commercial vehicles (full weight up to 3.5 tons), pcs.
|
brand, model |
2016 |
2015 |
Dynamics,% |
|
Gazelle Next. |
|||
|
Lada Largus |
|||
|
Mercedes Sprinter. |
|||
Table 8.Sales of new buses, pcs.
|
Mark. |
2016 |
2015 |
Dynamics,% |
Table 9.Top 10 models of buses, pcs.
|
brand, model |
2016 |
2015 |
Dynamics,% |
Forecast car market in Russia for 2018
As Chinese say, it is difficult to predict, especially the future. Nevertheless, without forecast, business life is impossible.
Analysts converge in a single opinion: in 2018, sales on automotive market Russia will demonstrate significant growth. Positive attitudes are reinforced by a number of factors:
Strengthening the ruble, which will contribute to the stabilization of prices for cars.
The increase in income of the population, which will inevitably follow the increase in demand.
Reducing the cost of borrowed resources due to a decrease in the key rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation.
Highlight an important factor - support from the state. The program utilization program has led to sales stabilization during the crisis. In the future, this tool will accelerate the restoration of the domestic market, the experts assure.
In the current conditions of the sale of cars, according to the results of 2017, will increase by 5-10%.
Experts AvtoVAZ expect a final increase in sales of their products to 10% in the current year. In 2018, market growth will significantly accelerate due to the gradual improvement in the economic situation in the country.
Such assessments agree foreign experts, which take into account the influence of psychological factors. Consumers have practically adapted to new prices for cars, and it will also contribute to sales growth in 2018.
At the same time, the excessive increase in prices can weaken demand. The main source of risk remains the currency market, which can provoke a sharp jump in the cost of cars.
To analyze the car market, it is necessary to study a large amount of information that the company often does not have. Therefore, it is worth contacting professionals. We invite you to familiarize yourself with our base of information and analytical products of the commercial car market. Statistical reports and marketing studies prepared by VVS specialists will help you clearly focus on what types of transport are most in demand, who is your potential buyerIn which region / country is preferable to develop a business.
Quality in our business is, first of all, accuracy and fullness of information. When you make a solution based on data, which, to put it mildly, are incorrect, how much will your losses cost? Taking important strategic decisions, it is necessary to rely only on reliable statistical information. But how to be sure that this information is reliable? This can be checked! And we will provide you with this opportunity.
