Yesterday, the European Association of Automobile Manufacturers published another not joyful one between January and July 2016. As predicted by international analysts, our car market continued its protracted decline. The bottom line is not encouraging. For 7 months of this year, sales of new Vehicle decreased by 14.4 percent over the same period last year. Even more disappointing statistics can be seen at the end of the month of July this year, in which new car sales fell by 16.6 percent. But people are already accustomed to such falling statistics and this information will hardly surprise anyone. The thing is that we are all accustomed to seeing every month how it shrinks. But what if you look at the statistics of car sales over a three-year period. Let's find out in more detail how much our car market, and also analyze its chances of recovery.
First, let's remember 2013, which has already started to show a slowdown in new car sales. That is, even then the market began to decline, despite the fact that our country was still far from the economic crisis. But judging by the 5 percent drop by the end of 2013, he was the first to react to the slowdown in the country's GDP. And this is taking into account the fact that oil prices on world exchanges were still high, and our country received super profits from the sale of black gold. Nevertheless, due to structural problems in the Government and the Russian economy, the slowdown in GDP was inevitably reflected in the decline in household income. As a result, the automobile market was the first in the country to feel the drop in demand for new cars. But then no one reacted to the decline in sales, since 2012 was a record year for Russia in terms of sales of new vehicles. As a result, most analysts believed that the slowdown in new car sales in 2013 was due to a temporary saturation in demand.
But today, looking back, everyone already understands that it was 2013 that was the birth of a long-term falling trend in the car market, which has no end to this day. Although experts and analysts believe that this year the Russian car market has a real chance to stop the decline. It is quite possible that our market will indeed be able to stabilize for the first time in several years. There are prerequisites for this. But nevertheless, the situation in the country's economy remains unstable and therefore it is not a rewarding task to predict the results of the year at the moment.
No one doubts that our car market has seriously fallen. But few people think about how sales fell in the context of the last three years. To do this, you need to clearly see how much sales have fallen. vehicles... Let's take a look at the table that we have prepared for you. This analytics clearly shows how strong our car market has developed:
New car sales statistics from July 2013 to July 2016
| BRAND | JULY | JANUARY - JULY | ||||
| 2016 | 2013 | Dynamics in% | 2016 | 2013 | Dynamics in% | |
| Lada | 21754 | 37549 | -42,07 | 146107 | 264278 | -44,71 |
| KIA | 11841 | 17099 | -30,75 | 81607 | 111969 | -27,12 |
| Hyundai | 10802 | 14755 | -26,79 | 75136 | 104221 | -27,91 |
| Renault | 9132 | 18013 | -49,30 | 61173 | 122646 | -50,12 |
| Toyota | 7144 | 14599 | -51,07 | 51381 | 87653 | -41,38 |
| VW | 5839 | 13303 | -56,11 | 39463 | 90583 | -56,43 |
| Nissan | 4765 | 11605 | -58,94 | 41089 | 75352 | -45,47 |
| Skoda | 4670 | 6805 | -31,37 | 31560 | 49652 | -36,44 |
| GAZ com.aut. | 4115 | 7245 | -43,20 | 28865 | 45425 | -36,46 |
| Ford | 3306 | 9293 | -64,42 | 23984 | 60416 | -60,30 |
| UAZ | 3290 | 4158 | -20,88 | 24600 | 29141 | -15,58 |
| Mercedes-Benz | 2952 | 3835 | -23,02 | 22093 | 23865 | -7,43 |
| Chevrolet | 2577 | 15487 | -83,36 | 17360 | 95687 | -81,86 |
| Bmw | 2100 | 3515 | -40,26 | 16261 | 22789 | -28,65 |
| Mazda | 1854 | 3300 | -43,82 | 11001 | 23442 | -53,07 |
| Audi | 1700 | 2954 | -42,45 | 12832 | 21135 | -39,29 |
| Lexus | 1665 | 1298 | 28,27 | 12752 | 8774 | 45,34 |
| Lifan | 1387 | 2603 | -46,72 | 8952 | 14083 | -36,43 |
| Mitsubishi | 1358 | 6087 | -77,69 | 10067 | 43662 | -76,94 |
| Datsun ** | 1303 | 0 | 9532 | |||
| Land rover | 573 | 1715 | -66,59 | 5312 | 11307 | -53,02 |
| VW com.aut. | 456 | 1312 | -65,24 | 3109 | 9010 | -65,49 |
| Chery | 437 | 1853 | -76,42 | 3110 | 11525 | -73,02 |
| Volvo | 430 | 1021 | -57,88 | 2924 | 8407 | -65,22 |
| Mercedes-Benz com.aut. | 372 | 411 | -9,49 | 3103 | 2416 | 28,44 |
| Subaru | 359 | 1304 | -72,47 | 2989 | 9929 | -69,90 |
| Porsche | 358 | 299 | 19,73 | 2719 | 2163 | 25,71 |
| Infiniti | 342 | 625 | -45,28 | 2613 | 5051 | -48,27 |
| Citroёn | 263 | 2925 | -91,01 | 2390 | 16772 | -85,75 |
| Suzuki | 257 | 2551 | -89,93 | 3140 | 16372 | -80,82 |
| Peugeot | 248 | 2907 | -91,47 | 2118 | 20464 | -89,65 |
| Geely | 242 | 2773 | -91,27 | 3350 | 14474 | -76,86 |
| Ravon ** | 237 | 237 | ||||
| Jaguar | 220 | 175 | 25,71 | 941 | 938 | 0,32 |
| FIAT | 129 | 678 | -80,97 | 1361 | 4181 | -67,45 |
| Cadillac | 125 | 114 | 9,65 | 724 | 909 | -20,35 |
| MINI | 120 | 234 | -48,72 | 743 | 1584 | -53,09 |
| Honda | 119 | 2246 | -94,70 | 838 | 14520 | -94,23 |
| smart | 96 | 26 | 269,23 | 231 | 108 | 113,89 |
| DFM ** | 88 | 696 | ||||
| Jeep | 85 | 411 | -79,32 | 691 | 2413 | -71,36 |
| FAW | 77 | 461 | -83,30 | 577 | 2329 | -75,23 |
| Brilliance ** | 60 | 706 | ||||
| Isuzu | 40 | 20 | 100,00 | 288 | 73 | 294,52 |
| Zotye ** | 36 | 110 | ||||
| Iveco ** | 29 | 345 | ||||
| SsangYong | 19 | 3651 | -99,48 | 1039 | 19516 | -94,68 |
| BAW | 15 | 134 | -88,81 | 108 | 1017 | -89,38 |
| Alfa Romeo ** | 12 | 65 | ||||
| Changan ** | 9 | 316 | ||||
| Chrysler | 3 | 21 | -85,71 | 19 | 114 | -83,33 |
| Foton | 0 | 0 | 27 | 6 | 350,00 | |
| Haima * | 0 | 37 | -100,00 | 114 | 136 | -16,18 |
| Daewoo * | 3908 | 8574 | 31182 | -72,50 | ||
| Opel * | 0 | 6551 | -100,00 | 0 | 46144 | -100,00 |
| Great Wall * | 0 | 1708 | -100,00 | 0 | 12122 | -100,00 |
| Total | 109410 | 233574 | -45,60 | 781442 | 1559955 | -32,60 |
* - The brand left the Russian market / Sales were not recorded
** - The brand was not officially presented on the Russian market in 2013
As can be seen from the three-year statistics of new car sales in Russia, the situation in the car market of our country leaves much to be desired. So from July 2013 to July 2016, the Russian automotive market fell by 45.60 percent, having decreased from sales of 233,574 cars to 109,410 units.
If we compare 7 months of 2013 with the same period in 2016, the market for new cars decreased from 1,559,955 units. cars to 781,442 units, having fallen in percentage terms by 32.6 percent.
In general, the table shows that almost all car brands officially presented on the Russian market faced a drop in sales.
True, not all car companies record depressing sales statistics. So such brands as, and over the past 3 years have increased sales. Lexus sales are especially surprising, which grew 28.27 percent in three years, when both sales of a related Toyota brand during the same period decreased by 51.07 percent.
But apparently the growth in sales of individual car brands associated with an increase in demand for expensive exclusive cars... For example, Porsche also reported a 19.73 percent increase in sales from 07.2013 to 07.2016. But most of all, Jaguar was impressed by the company, which managed to increase sales in the Russian car market by 25.71 percent during the crisis years.
In addition, it should be noted that over the three-year crisis period, a number of car brands that showed good sales in 2013 left the Russian car market. For example, what is the cost of leaving the market for the brands Chevrolet and Opel, which had a good market share before the crisis. But for economic (or perhaps political) reasons, these brands have left the market.
Unfortunately, leaving the market for car brands that previously had not a bad the lineup and, accordingly, acceptable sales of new cars, has not been replaced by new ones car companies... The emergence of the brand Alfa-Romeo and a number of others car brands, did not affect the alignment of forces and market shares.
Statistics of falling sales of new cars from 2013 to 2016
(dynamics of falling sales by model)
| № | MODEL | BRAND |
January- july 2016 |
January- July 2013 |
Rev. (%) | 2016 July | July 2013 | Rev. (%) |
| 1 | Granta | Lada | 50301 | 98783 | -49,08 | 6334 | 14542 | -56,44 |
| 2 | Solaris | Hyundai | 53834 | 66493 | -19,04 | 7904 | 9484 | -16,66 |
| 3 | New rio | KIA | 47086 | 51887 | -9,25 | 7632 | 7651 | -0,25 |
| 4 | Duster | Renault | 26400 | 48058 | -45,07 | 3094 | 7348 | -57,89 |
| 5 | Polo | VW | 25494 | 41720 | -38,89 | 4135 | 7000 | -40,93 |
| 6 | Kalina | Lada | 12476 | 40870 | -69,47 | 1885 | 3789 | -50,25 |
| 7 | Focus * | Ford * | 39913 | 5749 | ||||
| 8 | Priora | Lada | 9702 | 36767 | -73,61 | 1398 | 4882 | -71,36 |
| 9 | Cruze ** | Chevrolet ** | 31296 | 6644 | ||||
| 10 | Logan | Renault | 16331 | 30180 | -45,89 | 2501 | 4289 | -41,69 |
| 11 | Niva | Chevrolet | 17085 | 29816 | -42,70 | 2545 | 3961 | -35,75 |
| 12 | Largus | Lada | 17061 | 29569 | -42,30 | 2514 | 4867 | -48,35 |
| 13 | Sandero | Renault | 15552 | 26044 | -40,29 | 2054 | 3806 | -46,03 |
| 14 | Octavia A5 (A7) | Skoda | 12471 | 25770 | -51,61 | 1880 | 3021 | -37,77 |
| 15 | 4x4 | Lada | 15102 | 25320 | -40,36 | 2035 | 3431 | -40,69 |
| 16 | Samara * | Lada * | 23845 | 4954 | ||||
| 17 | RAV 4 | Toyota | 18348 | 23389 | -21,55 | 2181 | 3474 | -37,22 |
| 18 | Astra ** | Opel ** | 22532 | 3783 | ||||
| 19 | Camry | Toyota | 16042 | 20464 | -21,61 | 2864 | 4207 | -31,92 |
| 20 | Qashqai | Nissan | 10515 | 19388 | -45,77 | 1337 | 3242 | -58,76 |
| 21 | Sportage | KIA | 10011 | 19030 | -47,39 | 1376 | 2675 | -48,56 |
| 22 | New Cee "d | KIA | 9510 | 18735 | -49,24 | 2955 | ||
| 23 | ix35 (Tucson) | Hyundai | 1129 | 18063 | -93,75 | 2859 | ||
| 24 | Nexia ** | Daewoo ** | 17622 | 2106 | ||||
| 25 | Tiguan * | VW * | 16073 | 1851 |
Data from the European Association of Automobile Manufacturers (aerobus.ru)
* - The car was not included in the statistics due to the absence of the Top 25 best-selling cars
** - The model in the presented period was not officially presented on the Russian market
In contrast to the situation with the statistics of new car sales (by brand) for the last 3 years, the situation with the statistics by model looks even worse. Above you can see a table that includes the Top 25 best-selling cars in Russia for the end of July 2013 (and for 7 months of 2013) and for the end of July 2016 (as well as for 7 months of 2016).
From the statistics, you can see that the drop in sales of the most popular models in the Russian car market looks deeper than the overall drop in sales for each company separately.
That is, due to serious economic problems in Russia, the car market fell primarily due to the previously sold cars. Unfortunately, the main blow of the fall in demand for new cars has affected domestic cars. Here, of course, the increase in prices for products played a role, a decrease in public interest in Russian brands towards cars of foreign brands, as well as, of course, an increase in interest rates for car loans. The fact is that in 2013 the share of cars bought in was approximately 70-75 percent. As you can see, in the pre-crisis years, car loans provided the lion's share of new car sales in Russia.
Sales of new passenger cars in Russia at the end of 2016 decreased by 11%. The rate of decline has decreased three times due to state support programs, economic stabilization and deferred demand, experts say
« Final search for the bottom "
In December 2016, about 146 thousand new cars and lightweight were sold in Russia commercial vehicles(LCV), which is 10% higher than the result of November (132.3 thousand), follows from the report of the Association of European Businesses (AEB).
But at the end of 2016, 1,425,791 cars were sold in Russia, which is 176,319 units, or 11%, less than a year earlier. Thus, last year was the fourth year in a row that the Russian automotive market fell, although the rate of decline decreased 3.2 times: in 2013, sales decreased by 5%, in 2014 - by 10.3%, in 2015 - by 35.7%.
Compared to the "double-digit decline in the first nine months of the year," December sales are a "good result," said AEB's chairman of the AEB automakers committee, Jörg Schreiber, quoted in the association's announcement. “The market as a whole still needs a positive reversal, but is obviously in the process of finally finding a bottom,” he added. The AEB hopes that in 2017 the Russian market “has the potential” to end a four-year decline and return to moderate growth. Total car sales in 2017 are expected to amount to 1.48 million units, which is 4% more than in 2016, Schreiber said.
Subaru and Suzuki believe that in 2017 the market may grow even a little more - by 4-5%, their representatives say. “So far there are no prerequisites for global growth,” admits Irina Zelentsova, head of the sales and marketing department at Suzuki Motor Rus. “We do not expect dramatic changes in 2017,” agrees Subaru Motor CEO Yoshiki Kishimoto. And Toyota believes that the market volume in 2017 will remain at the level of 2016, says Natalya Astafieva, a leading public relations specialist at the company. “The Russian automotive market remains one of the priority markets for Toyota, and we see it as promising,” she points out.
The relative stabilization of the car market was due to state support programs, an improvement in the economic situation and deferred demand, said Sergey Udalov, executive director of Avtostat, to RBC. Autostat's forecast does not differ much from the AEB, the growth by the end of the year may amount to about 5%. At the same time, the car market is quite volatile, if there are sharp movements in the economy, then, perhaps, the market recovery will go faster, he adds.
One fifth of all new car sales in 2016 came from cars manufactured by AvtoVAZ. As follows from the company's message published on Thursday, the plant sold 266.23 thousand cars in Russia over the year, which is 1% (2.8 thousand units) less than in 2015. According to AvtoVAZ's own assessment, Lada's share of Russian market at the end of the year amounted to 20%, which is 2.2 percentage points. better than the indicators of 2015. However, according to the AEB, in 2016 the concern's share was 18.7%, having increased by only 1.9% p.p.
How AvtoVAZ increased its share
At the end of 2015, Lada sales decreased by 30%, while the share of AvtoVAZ was 16.8% (according to AEB) in the total volume. In early March, the plant's shareholders, the Renuat-Nissan alliance and Rostec, decided to dismiss its president, Bo Andersson, who had headed the company since January 2014. One of the main reasons was the huge losses at the end of 2015 - 73.9 billion rubles. Instead of cooperating with Russian suppliers of components, Andersson chose to go "the easiest way", said then the general director of "Rostec" Sergei Chemezov, explaining the reason for the resignation of the top manager and the poor financial results of the company. According to him, it was "a big mistake."
A month before his resignation, Andersson said that in 2016 AvtoVAZ will increase its share to 20%. The press service of the plant on Thursday said that this goal has been achieved - the plant controls 20% of sales of new cars. But, according to the AEB, the share of Lada in the total sales volume was 18.7%.
After the resignation of the president of AvtoVAZ, the company was headed by Nicolas Mor, who came from another subsidiary of the Renault-Nissan alliance, the Romanian Dacia. “First, my main goal is to return the company to profitability. Secondly, the strengthening of Lada's presence in the Russian market. Thirdly, it is necessary to bring standards and methods of managing the alliance to AvtoVAZ, to attract more and more employees from AvtoVAZ to projects that are being implemented within the perimeter of the Renault-Nissan alliance, "Mor said in an interview with Vedomosti in June 2016.
In addition, Mor was tasked with increasing the level of localization of components that AvtoVAZ uses in its models, said Rostec CEO Sergei Chemezov.
South Korean seat manufacturer Daewon localizes at the IzhAvto site (one of the AvtoVAZ factories) in Izhevsk the production of seat frames for Lada Vesta that were previously imported, Chemezov said at a briefing in December: "The task is to localize the frameworks as soon as possible." According to him, the plant can increase the level of localization of new models precisely due to the active attraction of foreign suppliers to Russia, AvtoVAZ should increase the localization of Vesta and Xray by 10 percentage points in three years, to about 50%.
Korean ranked second and third in 2016 manufacturers Kia(149.5 thousand) and Hyundai (145.25 thousand) reduced sales by 9 and 10%, respectively, follows from the AEB report. Lexus (up 19%, up to 24.1 thousand), Lifan (+ 15%, up to 17.46 thousand), Ford (+ 10%, up to 42.5 thousand) were also able to increase sales at the end of the year. , Skoda (+ 1%, up to 55.4 thousand) and UAZ (+ 1%, up to 48.85 thousand). And outsiders at the end of 2016 were SsangYong (-78%), Honda (-62%), Geely (-61%) and Mitsubishi (-53%).
Among the models, the main bestseller of the Russian car market at the end of 2016 was Hyundai solaris, although its sales on an annualized basis fell by more than 20% (to 90.38 thousand units). In second place - Lada granta(-27%, 87.72 units), in third place - Kia rio(+ 9.7%, 87.66 thousand cars).
Optimistic attitude
Positive changes in the market in 2016 are seen both by companies that have managed to improve their results over the year, and by automakers, who have reduced their share of sales. The share of Kia at the end of the year amounted to 10.5%, having increased by 0.3 percentage points, the Managing Director told RBC “ KIA Motor Rus »Alexander Moinov. The goal for 2017 is to bring this figure to 11%, he added.
Russia remains a "key strategic market" for Nissan as well, the company is implementing long-term plans to increase localization and strengthen its positions, the head of Nissan in Russia, Andrei Akifiev, told RBC through the press service. “The foundation we have built in Russia is strong enough, but at the same time, due to external factors, we have to adjust our course in accordance with the new conditions,” he admitted.
Natalya Kostyukovich, PR Director of Volkswagen Group Rus, told RBC that despite the fact that in 2016 the automotive market fell by 11%, the company was able to increase its market share from 10.3 to 11%. In 2016, Volkswagen sold 157 thousand vehicles in Russia, of which 147 thousand were produced at local production sites - in Kaluga and Nizhny Novgorod... The volume of local production in 2016 increased by 9%, she said.
“The results of 2016 are quite expected. Of course, we wanted to sell more cars, but we made a good start for the future. Our goal for 2017 is to increase our market share to 1% (about 0.5%), and in the optimistic scenario - up to 4%, ”said Alexander Migal, Managing Director of Peugeot, Citroen and DS.
"In 2016, Subaru sales decreased by 18%, this is due to the fact that initially we planned sales based on the fact that the market will fall by 20%, so this is quite an expected result for us," Kishimoto told RBC through the press service. Initially in 2016, the company planned to sell 5.5 thousand cars, but in the end it sold a little more - 5.7 thousand.
Growth not in Russia
According to preliminary estimates, by the end of 2016, the volume of the global car market will amount to 90.9 million units, which is 1.7% higher than in 2015 (89.4 million units - data from IHS Automotive). In contrast to the Russian car market, global sales have shown positive dynamics over the past five years.
According to focus2move data, Volkswagen became the leader of the world car market at the end of last year, having sold 10.1 million cars, which is 1.4% higher than in 2015. And Toyota dropped to second place from 9.95 million cars (+ 0.2%). Renault-Nissan Alliance, which controls Russian AvtoVAZ, sold 8.5 million vehicles (+ 6.2%), Korean Hyundai and Kia - 8.17 million units (+ 1.9%). The top five is closed by the American General Motors - 7.97 million (+ 0.3%).
At the end of 2014, there was a drop in oil prices, a weakening of the ruble, a destabilization of the economy, which caused an increase in car prices, recalls Udalov from Avtostat. As a result, the Russian car market began to decline, unlike the world one, he notes.
But in 2017, experts expect a drop in sales of the global car market. Until the end of this year, only 83.6 million new cars can be sold (8% less than expected at the end of 2016), predicts the Association of the German automotive industry(VDA).
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"This has not happened for several years." What's going on with car sales
Who is helping the market to recover, which programs turned out to be the most effective, how prices will change and why forecasts for the coming year have not become very optimistic
The last year of 2017 was remembered for the market reversal, when the seemingly endless drop in sales was replaced by full-fledged growth. The final results of the year have not yet been summed up, but according to the results of 11 months, according to the reports of the Association of European Businesses, 1.43 million vehicles were sold, which is 12% more than in the same period last year. Experts are confident that by the end of 2017 the market will surely surpass the mark of 1.5 million vehicles, exceeding the 2009 sales level.
Analyst of the agency "Avtostat" Azat Timerkhanov claims that there were no surprises, and in general the forecasts for market growth were fully justified: “A year ago we gave a forecast for the market at 1.45-1.5 million and for an increase of 10-15%. Now we are seeing an increase of 12%, and by the end of the whole year the market will come close to 1.5 million cars. "
Themselves local
Manufacturers with local production showed an even greater increase. So, sales growth Lada brands was 17%, which helped the manufacturer achieve a market share of 20%, and this best result brand over the past six years. Increase Renault brands for 11 months was 18%. The press office of the company noted that this result became possible thanks to the implementation of the local production strategy.
In addition, the French company considers the experience of organizing online sales to be successful - more than 10 thousand cars have been sold via the Internet. And the Mitsubishi brand has already grown by 33% largely due to the expansion of the model range, an increase in the load on the assembly plant near Kaluga and a decrease in prices for localized models.
“Serious pent-up demand has been building since 2014, and now people are finally starting to change the cars they bought in 2011-2012. This process started in the outgoing year and will continue next year, ”Azat Timerkhanov predicts.
You can also on credit
State support programs became another market catalyst, the expert explains: “Due to state support programs, which were expanded by the end of the year due to the first and family car, the share of credit sales has grown strongly and exceeded 50%, which has not happened for several years. " So, with the help of credit programs, a third of Renault cars and for Hyundai this figure reached 52%.
Kira Kaddaha, a representative of the dealer aggregator Autospot.ru, believes that government support has become a key factor in the development of the market, since in 2017 the benefits were increased.
“Firstly, the maximum cost of a car for the concessional lending program was increased to 1,450,000 rubles. instead of the previous 1,140,000 rubles. Secondly, since 2017, buyers have the opportunity to purchase a car without down payment... Thirdly, the interest rate", - the expert lists.
Kaddaha recalls that the maximum possible rate for the borrower was capped at 11.3% per annum. Representatives of AvtoVAZ, in turn, especially noted the effectiveness of trade-in programs, for which 40% of the cars were sold, and at Nissan, more than 50% of transactions were made using trade-in.
Alexey Shilykovsky, Sales Director of Jaguar Land Rover Russia, explains the more modest growth in premium segment: “Government support and demand are primarily aimed at local production and mass-market vehicles - growth is obvious there, and it will continue. In the premium segment, a significant increase in sales is most likely not to be expected now. "
In addition to government programs, dealers have new financial instruments. In addition to leasing for individuals dealers began to actively promote buyback loans and small monthly payments. This program, launched by Renault, has helped to sell around 5,000 vehicles. Hyundai operates a similar scheme, accounting for 40% of all loans issued.
“One of the factors that influence the choice of clients is the availability of financial instruments and programs,” confirms Yulia Tikhonravova from Hyundai.
Nissan spokesman Roman Skolsky draws attention to the ease of obtaining a loan: “Special financial programs are available using the one-stop-shop method - decisions on financing conditions are made in 20 minutes with the ability to receive funds without providing financial statements directly at the dealership”.
The market result could have been even better, Timerkhanov says, but purely economic factors hold back sales: “Everything depends on the economy. The oil price is kept at about the same level, the domestic currency avoids sharp fluctuations, but the real incomes of the population are not growing. "
For the same reason, experts give more cautious forecasts for 2018. The purchasing power will decrease, Kira Kaddaha assures, and the volumes of local production will fall: "The lull will be associated not only with the rise in prices, but also with the end of the period of deferred demand, due to which 2017 was such a successful year for almost all automakers."
Cars and prices
In 2017, car prices grew very moderately. According to the agency "Autostat", following the results of 11 months, the weighted average price for new cars increased by almost 2%, to 1.33 million rubles. So, the increase in prices for model Lada row was 3%, and the Skoda office assured that the brand did not make any significant changes to the price lists during the year. Prices for Jaguar and Land Rover models have not changed. Nissan adjusted prices in line with inflation, increasing them by 2-3% depending on the model.
At the same time, not all manufacturers were able to win back the exchange rate difference, says Timerkhanov: “From August 2014 to November 2017, prices for cars increased by 48%. Foreign currencies rose more significantly against the ruble: the dollar - by 76%, the yen and yuan - by 60%, the euro - by 50%. And the representative of Jaguar Land Rover believes that it was impossible to fully compensate for the exchange rate difference.
The lingering exchange rate difference is not the only reason for the upcoming rise in car prices that analysts expect. “First of all, this is due to inflation and changes in excise taxes, as well as changes in the complete sets of models when changing model years,” says Aleksey Pochechuev from the Skoda representative office.
Managing Director of Kia Motors Rus Alexander Moinov predicts growth at the level of 5% only on the inflationary component.
Since the new year, the scrappage fee has increased by 15%, which was already increased by 65% a year ago, as well as excise taxes on passenger cars with engines of over 150 engines have increased. Horse power... Most of all, this affected high-power machines. For example, the excise tax on vehicles over 300 hp. is 1218 rubles. for 1 hp, that is, in fact, the buyer of such a car will have to pay an additional 300 thousand rubles. customs fees.
“The government decided that it is necessary to raise excise taxes on powerful motors, and on the strongest of them - more than twice. Accordingly, the price tag will rise due to the increase in excise taxes levied on automakers, which they have to include in the price of vehicles, ”explains Kira Kaddaha. And the government expects to receive 223.4 billion rubles from recycling fees in 2018, and this money, the expert says, will ultimately also fall on buyers.
Prices will continue to rise, but the growth will not be as serious as during the crisis, Azat Timerkhanov is sure. “On average, we expect prices to rise by 2-3%. More specific figures depend on the degree of localization, ”says the expert.
It is not excluded that even negative expectations from the economy can stimulate raising producer prices. BMW and Cadillac have already announced price increases in the new year - the Bavarians have increased the cost of cars by 2.5%, the Americans - by 6-8%. According to the site, in the new year, Porsche and Mercedes-Benz will also adjust their price lists.
A remedy for depression
Taking into account all these factors, the Avtostat agency expects that in 2018 the market will continue to grow, but only within 10%. However, demand may decrease in the second half of the year, says Timerkhanov: “The presidential election period will be accompanied by a money supply, which allows people to invest more actively in purchases. This will be a temporary effect that will persist in the first half of the year. In the second half of the year, the market will decline, especially given the relatively high base of 2017 ”.
Hyundai officials also expect the market to grow 10% in 2018 to reach 1.75 million vehicles. And Natalya Kostenok from the Russian office of Mitsubishi believes that an increase of 10-13% will be possible only with continued subsidies from the state.
Experts unanimously consider the economic situation to be the most important factor for the market. Everything will depend on the ruble exchange rate and oil prices, says Kira Kaddaha: “According to the forecasts of the Ministry of Finance, the average annual price of Brent oil in 2018 could be $ 40 per barrel. The Ministry of Finance has laid down the dollar rate of 69.8 rubles in the country's budget. This is almost 10 rubles. or 16% higher than in the last 6 months. The ruble will fall in price along with oil, and there is a high probability that 2018 could plunge the car market into depression. "
The drop in sales of new passenger cars in the Russian market in January 2017 accelerated to 5%, during this period of time, 77,916 new cars were sold, according to the report of the Automobile Manufacturers' Committee of the Association of European Businesses (AEB). These are the first results of the current year, in the last three months of last, we recall, the market showed results of -2.6%, + 0.6% and -1%, respectively.
“If the market is going to grow this year, then January showed no rush in this intention. After a very slow first two weeks, buying activity has increased markedly and consistently since the middle of the month. This suggests that shoppers have embraced the 2017 grocery offerings and prices and come to terms with the new reality. This is a solid base to start at the start of the spring season and with the current trend continuing, it should only be a matter of time before we see an increase over the previous year, ”explained the sales results from AEB Automobile Manufacturers Committee Chairman Jörg Schreiber.
Most cars in the first month of 2017 were sold under the Lada brand - 16,334 units. This is 5% more than in 2016 (15,577 pieces). In second place is Kia. Last month, sales of the Korean brand in Russia grew by 14% to 10,306 vehicles. For comparison, in 2016, Russians purchased 9,049 Kia vehicles.
Hyundai closes the top three with a result of 6 694 cars - this figure is 16% lower than the results of 2016 (8 010 units). This is followed by Renault (5,208) and Volkswagen (4,581).
The largest drop in January 2017 was shown by Brilliance (-88.6%), Geely (-78.4%), Suzuki (-53.6%), Porsche (-51.4%), Toyota (-36.8 %), Honda (-35.3%).
The first place in the ranking of the most popular models was taken by the Kia Rio. In total, 5,693 vehicles were sold in Russia over the past month against 3,553 units in 2016. In second place is Lada Granta. In January of this year, the Russians purchased 4,624 of these machines. In 2016, over the same period, 7,377 units were sold. Thus, this car became the leader in the decline in demand over the past year.
Lada Vesta closes the top three with 4,088 cars. In 2016 - it amounted to 1,643 cars. This is followed by Hyundai Solaris (2,886 vehicles). In fifth place - Hyundai creta(2,565 cars).
In the premium segment, five brands were able to demonstrate growth. Jaguar figures rose 0.2% to 535 units. Cadillac delivered 78 vehicles to customers in January 2016, up 62.5% from a year earlier. Infiniti sold 379 vehicles last month (+ 27.2%). Audi sold 935 vehicles (this figure is 3.3% more than in 2016), while Volvo sold 72 vehicles (+ 350%).
Mercedes-Benz managed to sell 2,471 vehicles, which is 22.9% less than in 2016. In turn, Lexus sold 1,000 vehicles in Russia (-7.8%). Demand for models has also dropped German company BMW. In total, last month, Russians purchased 1,758 of these machines (-8.4%). During the reporting period, Porsche realized 51.4% fewer cars- 151 pieces.
September begins, and consumer demand in the automotive market is sharply increasing again. So at the end of summer and at the beginning of autumn, you should not expect any profitable promotions, discounts, sales and other offers. Demand has been kept at a high level since mid-autumn, after which it begins to gradually decline. But if you are waiting maximum benefit from the purchase, in October or November it is not worth waiting for it. The situation is no better with used cars. Autumn weather makes its own adjustments to the condition of the cars, and to the mood of the sellers themselves. Dirt and slush will hide possible body defects, and due to the pressure of gray weather, the owners are not in the mood to bargain and drop the price just like that. Better to wait for a more favorable time.
Optimal seasons to buy
And here you have guessed what time of year you should buy cars. These are winter and spring periods. Many people just love these stretches of the year so much. In winter, the long-awaited snow comes, the weather changes, the New Year holidays come. Spring brings us back to the warmth, but at the same time we do not have to suffer from the sultry summer heat. Interestingly, with the arrival of these seasons, the automotive market allows for a number of profitable purchases.
Winter
Experts are confident that it is in winter that the best deals on the new and used car market come in. Judge for yourself. In December, many dealers have cars of the current model year, and soon the cars of the new model will be available. In order to sell off the remainder, prices are gradually reduced. To increase the attractiveness of such cars, dealers offer not only discounts, but also nice gifts, bonuses to customers, some free accessories and much more. Still, there is no need to rush in December. You can wait a bit, take a closer look, ask the price and make a purchase in January. This is due to the fact that the peak of profitable acquisitions falls on this particular month. The holidays are over, and therefore it's time to take the collected money and go for the car.
The thing is that after the holidays, the activity of buyers decreases to incredible rates. This is easily explained by the cost of New Year, various trips, the purchase of gifts and other expenses. People are simply not ready to part with large sums of money to purchase a car. But those who understand the whole essence of the market go for a car in January. They work on last year's models, and there are pleasant bonuses included with the car.
The secondary market is also very favorable. The autumn calm has noticeably reduced the number of calls to seller ads. Yes, and after impressive spending during the holiday period, it is tempting to get a round sum for your car. The buyer himself in January can inspect the car thoroughly enough, because often there is no dirt at this time, the car is clean and well-groomed. In February, there is a certain risk of being left without last year's car in the salon, or getting the most favorable discount. The main thing here is not to delay, otherwise you will have to take the car of the new model year without any discounts. Usually, in the last month of winter, all car leftovers are sold.
Spring
March and April should be considered favorable periods for buying a car. New holidays begin, dealers offer special promotions, add free gifts to the purchase. But don't expect a collapse in car prices. There will be no more discounts, as the period of the highest demand for new cars is ahead, which starts in May. Spring can only bring benefits in its first half. If you delayed the purchase longer than until mid-April, then leave your money in a safe place and wait for winter. Also, spring cannot be considered the optimal period for buying used cars. The increasing demand for cars also affects the aftermarket. Therefore, it is absolutely not worth waiting longer than mid-April. The buyer will be disturbed by the weather, which is accompanied by constant slush and mud.
Don't forget about currency fluctuations. If you follow the state of the economy, sometimes you can profitably use the leaps of the ruble against the dollar. This is especially true among those in foreign currency. They often leave the price tag at the same level, although the ruble is becoming more expensive against the dollar, or the price of the American currency itself is falling. As a result, the dollar price tag becomes profitable for a number of buyers who should take advantage of this situation.
We are talking exclusively about the situation of the last few years. Statistics can change dramatically, and in the completely opposite direction. Therefore, you should independently monitor current trends, check prices and availability. special offers at official dealers... As soon as you see a solution that is beneficial for yourself, be sure to use it. But waiting for months or years for car prices to fall is definitely not worth it. The trend is that the cost of cars will only increase. Therefore, sometimes it is better to buy a car now than to wait for the unknown. Who knows, maybe in a year this same car will become more expensive by several tens or hundreds of thousands of rubles. And the seasonal discount will only return the price tag to the level before the increase. There is no talk of any benefit here.
Buying a new car
Now let's talk in more detail about when it is better to buy for yourself new car... To do this, you need to decide on car dealerships and try to narrow down the potential list of cars. Still, you must know what you yourself want. Just taking a car just because of its availability is not worth it. Every car dealer in every showroom plans their own sales. That is, there are so-called quarterly and annual plans. To fulfill them, you need to implement a certain sales standard. With this in mind, you can determine when is the best time to buy a new car in the showroom. The seller's fulfillment of the plan allows you to count on a solid premium. Therefore, each dealer is interested in selling the maximum number of cars.
The demand for new cars drops significantly by the beginning of the new year, since all last year's models automatically become one year older. To cope with the decline in buying activity, car dealerships are starting to run special promotions and sales. Thus, they lure people into buying cars. This is the best time to buy. new car at the car dealership. Moreover, a car dealer is endowed with certain powers that allow him to make a discount on a car. Therefore, it is better to discuss this issue with your direct management, as they can organize an impressive bonus for you.
The potential discount percentage depends a lot on the vehicle itself. If we are talking about expensive cars, then there are always discounts on them. The only question is size. But on budget cars they rarely throw off even small amounts, since the cars themselves are inexpensive. To save money on buying a new car, it is best to visit car dealerships during the end of the month, quarter, or reporting year. Then you will almost certainly get a discount.
Such promotions are provided in the form of a reduction in the cost of the car itself in the amount of 5-10%, or as additional components. That is, you can be given a set of high-quality winter tires, disks or other useful and necessary equipment for a car. Since such gifts are far from cheap, and the same wheels and tires would still have to be bought, this can be considered an extremely profitable deal. But even when the car is new, it is imperative to check it. Sale of last year's cars is often carried out at the expense of cars that have been on open parking... This can negatively affect paintwork and the condition of the body.
Buying used cars
When purchasing a used car, it is also important to know and understand when it is best to buy it. It has its own rules and nuances that allow you to get a good profit from the transaction being made. Statistics show that the bulk of used, that is, used cars, are sold during the spring and summer. During this period secondary market there is noticeable activity, because the demand is the highest. But here you should carefully consider the question of when is the best time to buy a used car. The increased demand and activity of buyers lead to the fact that it is almost impossible to achieve a discount during this period. Yes, but you can study the condition of the car due to the absence of slush and dirt.
Things are quite different in autumn, and even better in winter. Not everyone potential buyers I want to drive and watch cars when there is snow, slush, mud or rain outside. Buying activity in the secondary market is falling noticeably, because sellers who want to quickly sell cars are forced to drop the price.
Experienced professionals can advise on when is the best time to buy a used car. A buyer can get the greatest benefit from a "used" car on a cold winter day just before the holidays. In most cases, the sale of a car at this time is associated with the desire to take a new car. Moreover, the seller wants to do it now, while special holiday offers are in effect.
Advice! There is another advantage of buying in winter. You can tell the owner not to start the engine. So you can personally observe how the ignition works in cold weather. If there are no problems with starting, this proves good technical condition cars.
Vehicle ownership statistics
When planning to buy a car, most people initially think about how much this car will be in use. And here there are special statistics that allow you to determine important nuances:
- Currently, in Russia, the average duration of ownership of a new car from the moment of its purchase in a car dealership is 55 months, that is, about 4.5 years. This figure applies to all passenger cars.
- Cars domestic production stay in the garages of Russians for much longer. UAZ vehicles have been in operation for 5.8 years, and AvtoVAZ products have been used by people for about 5.5 years on average. Since the previous value was indicated taking into account all cars, it becomes clear why, on average, a car owner has been using a car for more than 4 years. Still share domestic cars in Russia is huge.
- Among foreign cars, representatives of Japanese automakers are the longest-livers. Models from Honda and Suzuki are bought for an average of 56 months, and Mitsubishi cars Russians own for about 58 months.
- The most frequent cars passing from hand to hand are the representatives of the premium segment. The average length of ownership is 3.4 years. This is due to the status of such machines. Owning an expensive foreign car for many years is not particularly prestigious, since the regular renewal of the car fleet is considered an indicator of a good financial situation. Yet expensive foreign cars they buy mainly not from the point of view of a means of transportation, but for status.
Based on this data, you can roughly estimate how many people are in the hands of a used car for sale. Most people prefer to buy a car from one owner, because this way they are less likely to face hidden problems, it is easier to find out the history of the car and get a number of other useful information.
Finally, let's give a few useful tips that can be useful to you in your search for the best deal.
- Fiscal year. In most cases, for car dealers, it ends in March. But sometimes it is the first month of winter, that is, December. It is better to know about this in advance if you are interested in the offers of a particular car dealership. Thus, do not miss the most advantageous period of discounts and special offers.
- Gray deals. There are situations where car dealers offer lucrative but not entirely fair deals. They are concluded only with trusted and reliable sellers, or by acquaintance. Each dealer has a certain limit of discounts that he can use to sell cars. The bottom line is that with normal sales figures, the manager can provide a solid discount. But on condition that you reward him with a certain amount. The scheme is gray and looks a bit like a scam, but in fact no theft or deception is happening. Everyone gets what they want.
- Purchase in the first quarter. When cars of the new model year appear in the showroom, an active sale of old cars begins. But buying the latter will not be beneficial to everyone. It all depends on how long you are going to operate the car before resale. If you do not plan to drive a car for more than 3 years, then it is better to immediately purchase a car of the new model year at a higher price. This is because resale will take into account the year of manufacture, not the year of purchase. Thus, for a newer car, you will receive a large sum from the buyer. And if a car is purchased for 5 - 7 years, then it is really profitable to take a model of the last model year at a discount. After the same 5 - 7 years in the secondary market, a year of difference will no longer play a special role.
As you understand, the cost of cars and the opportunity to receive profitable discounts are directly influenced by seasonal demand and the plans of car dealers to sell vehicles. But you should not start from dry statistics only. The situation is constantly changing, some car dealerships can provide solid bonuses even in the midst of demand. Therefore, you need to carefully monitor the dynamics of the market, track current trends and observe changes. At some point, you will definitely get lucky, and you will be able to take the desired car for a very favorable price, or with an addition in the form of pleasant bonuses, accessories and equipment for a new car.
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